01.04.2015 - Traders are waiting for statistics on oil reserves in the US
The price of gold has stabilized below the level of 1190. The fall has stopped on a background correction of the US dollar. Statistics on the growth of house prices in 20 major US cities by 4.6% improved expectations for growth of the sector, which is critical for the US economy. Improving data from China, where manufacturing PMI from HSBC Bank rose to 49.6, which is 0.3 better than expected, supported the demand for gold. We recall that China is the largest consumer of gold in the world. Further movement of the price of gold will depend on the statistics on the US labor market, the improvement of which will lead to an increase in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June, which adversely affect the price of gold. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the price decline may continue in the near future to $ 1150 per troy ounce.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to decline despite correction of the US dollar. Statistics on the manufacturing sector in China, which is the world's second largest consumer of oil was better than expected, but was not able to change the mood of investors. Today, the central event of the day will be the publication of a report on oil and petroleum products inventories in the US (14:30 GMT). The course of trading will also be affected by the news on the manufacturing PMI in the US (14:00 GMT). The excess of oil on the market and a reduction in storage capacity of oil continue to put pressure on quotes. We recommend holding short positions on oil, to $ 40 per barrel and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.