01.04.2016 - The report on the US labor market will lead to an increase in volatility
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to rise against the US dollar due to the softer rhetoric of the Fed chief regarding the Fed to tighten monetary policy. It is worth noting that the positive statistics on Chicago’s manufacturing PMI was published yesterday, which rose to 53.6 in March from 47.6 in February. Today, in the focus of investors will be statistics on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). At the same time we should pay attention to the data on the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), construction spending and consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect a high level of volatility today, and our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound is dropping against the US dollar amid pessimistic sentiment regarding the referendum on the UK’s exit the European Union. It is worth mentioning conflicting statistics that was published yesterday, according to which, the UK's GDP growth in Q4 was 0.6%, against the previous estimate of 0.5%, but the current account deficit for 2015 rose to 5,2% of GDP, which increases the pressure on the British currency. Today, it is worth paying attention to the UK manufacturing PMI (08:30 GMT), as well as news from the US. We expect the decline of the pound in the coming months and recommend to accumulate short positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate after the recent strengthening caused by the decline of the US dollar. The negative impact of the yen had the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector Tankan which fell to 22 in the first quarter, which is 2 less than the forecast and 3 worse than the last figure. Manufacturing PMI in Japan remained at the level of 49.1 in March. According to our estimates, the fall of the yen against the dollar will resume in the near future and our medium-term outlook remains pessimistic.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate around this year's highs. It is worth noting that the quotes did not continue to rise despite the strong data on manufacturing PMI of Australia and China, which rose to 58.1 and 50.2 in March, compared to 53.5 and 49.0 in February. On Monday, we should pay attention to the statistics on retail sales in Australia, and on Tuesday will be published an important report on the trade balance of Australia. The potential for further price growth is low and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar drops today despite the publication of strong statistics in China, which is the main importer of the New Zealand products. It should be noted the positive trends in the trade balance of the country, but low inflation and a likely decline on the commodity markets may lead to a further reduction in interest rates of RBNZ, which is negatively displayed on the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.