01.06.2015 - ​Risks associated with Greece continue to grow

Major US stock indexes finished the last trading day of the week lower on the publication of statistics on reduction of the US GDP by 0.7% in the first quarter of this year. Analysts had forecasted a drop of 0.8%, while the previous estimate pointed to an increase of 0.2%. It is worth noting that analysts point to signs of accelerating economic growth in the second quarter and forecast an increase of about 2.0%. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the US rose to 90.7, vs. expected 90.0. Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell in May to 46.2, against expected growth of 53.1. Today is expected the release of a report on personal income and consumer spending (12:30 GMT), the US manufacturing PMI and construction spending (14:00 GMT). We keep medium-term positive outlook, but there is a low potential for growth.

Major European stock indexes showed a fall on the last day of the week amid rising concerns over a default by Greece. Thus, in the period from 5 to 19 June, the country needs to pay 1.6 billion euros and analysts doubt the possibility of repayment of the debt and reaching an agreement on debt restructuring in Greece. IMF chief Christine Lagarde does not exclude a Greek exit from the Eurozone. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics on manufacturing PMI of the euro zone (08:00 GMT) and the UK (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the market in the region remains positive due to the positive expectations for GDP growth in the euro area and the UK, as well as due to a program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. Despite this, the Greek crisis is the main risk for further growth.

Major stock indexes in Asia and the Pacific show a different dynamics. Sentiments on the Chinese market have improved amid the news on the country's manufacturing PMI, which rose by 0.1 to 50.2. The comparable figure in Japan remained at the level of 50.9. The fall of the Japanese yen continues to support exporters quotes. The Australian market is down despite positive data on manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly rose to 52.3 in May from 48.0 in April. This fact points to the resumption of growth in the sector. Stock indexes in the region will likely continue to rise in the medium term against the backdrop of stimulus measures from China and Japan.

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