01.06.2016 - Oil can change the trend to negative after a meeting of OPEC

The price of gold has corrected upwards after the sharp fall the previous day, which was caused by the growth of investor confidence in the Fed raising interest rates after the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee in June or July. Such a step will lead to an increase in yields of US short-term bonds, which will reduce the attractiveness of gold. The growth of gold may continue in case of a substantial correction on the stock markets. Investors are waiting for a report on the labor market in the US, which will increase volatility. Despite the current upward correction, we maintain a medium-term negative view on gold due to the expected strengthening of the dollar and the tightening of US monetary policy.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil corrected yesterday amid fixing long positions ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting. We recall that the price of oil rose by more than 80% from the lows recorded in the middle of February. We do not expect reaching a consensus on the measures necessary to reduce the excess supply on the market, which, together with the restoration of supplies from Canada and Nigeria will put pressure on the quotes. In addition, tomorrow will be published data on US oil inventories. According to our forecasts, the price can be reduced within the correction by 15-20% in the near future.

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