01.06.2016 - Raising the sales tax in Japan will be deferred until 2019
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to fall after yesterday was published strong data on consumer spending in the US, which rose in April by 1.0%, vs. expected 0.7%. At the same time, the index of US consumer confidence from the Conference Board fell to 92.6, compared with an expected increase to 96.1. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the US (14:00 GMT). We also pay attention to the data on construction spending in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday showed a decline amid worsening expectations about the results of the referendum on the UK's membership in the EU. Thus, according to the latest surveys 51% of voters opposed the exit of the country from the EU, but 48% support this initiative. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the manufacturing PMI in the UK and the volume of lending in the country (08:30 GMT). We expect increased volatility in prices in June, but according to our estimates, prices fall should be used to accumulate long positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a sharp increase after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his intention to postpone raising the sales tax by 2% to 10% from April 2017 to October 2019. It is worth noting that the manufacturing PMI in Japan increased by 0.1 to 47.7, but the figure still indicates contraction in the sector. Tomorrow will be published data on consumer confidence index in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a drop in prices in the coming weeks on expectations the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has shown strong growth after was released the report on GDP growth of the country in the 1st quarter, which totaled 1.1% vs. anticipated 0.6%. Support for the economic growth was the increase in exports of iron ore and liquefied natural gas. Today was also published the manufacturing PMI data in the country, which dropped to 51.0 in May vs. 53.4 in April. The same indicator in China fell to 49.2, which is 0.2 less than in the previous period. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, despite a likely continuation of the current growth in the next few days.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar showed steady growth after publication of strong data on GDP growth in Australia, whose economy has a strong impact on New Zealand. Weaker data from China will constrain further growth. Improving macroeconomic indicators in New Zealand reduces the likelihood of a further reduction in interest rates in the country, but does not exclude such a possibility. We forecast a drop in prices in the medium term due to the expected growth of the US dollar and forecasted fall on commodity markets in the near future.