01.06.2016 - The probability of falling stock markets rose strongly
US stock indexes did not show uniform dynamics yesterday. Support for the market has become the positive data on personal spending of consumers in the United States that increased by 1.0% in April, against the forecast of growth by 0.7%. This acceleration was the highest since 2009, and strengthened investor confidence in the improvement of the situation in the US economy. On the other hand, the markets held back by weak growth in the index of consumer confidence data from the Conference Board, which fell to 92.6 vs. expected 96.1. Today, will be published data on the manufacturing PMI, construction spending (14:00 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT). According to our forecasts, the decline will continue in the near future.
European stock indices are falling on the background of the negative impact of voter surveys in the UK, according to which the country’s risk of exit from the EU remains high. In addition, the dynamics of trade is adversely affected by the strike in France, which may negatively influence the growth of the second largest economy in the Eurozone. Manufacturing PMI in the euro area remained at 51.5, while the same indicator in the UK rose to 50.1 in May, which is 0.5 more than the forecast. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the ECB's decision on interest rates, and a press conference by Mario Draghi. We maintain our medium-term positive outlook for European markets, but will probably see the fall in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed a negative dynamics due to the decline in oil prices, uncertainty in the US and negative news from Europe, where Britain feared exit from the EU and the negative impact of strikes in France. The strong negative impact on the Japanese market had a stronger yen. In addition to increased demand for defensive assets, currency quotes are supported by the statement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on increase sales tax to 10% in October 2019 that is 2.5 years later than was previously expecled. Manufacturing PMI in China totaled 50.1, which is 0.1 more than forecast, while in Japan the same index rose to 47.7, against 47.6. Australia's GDP growth in Q1 was 1.1%, which is 0.5% more than the forecast. We forecast a decline in the near future.