01.07.2015 - Markets are waiting for data on the US labor market
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell yesterday against the US dollar due to the news that Greece has not paid about 1.6 billion euros of debt to the IMF. The country is trying to agree on a financial aid without IMF involvement. We recall that on 5 July in Greece will be a referendum at which will decide on the austerity measures that the country needs for debt restructuring. At the same time the growth of the US dollar contributed to the data on the growth of the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which rose to 101.4, against the forecast of 97.1. Today, the dynamics will depend on the data on manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the US (14:00 GMT), as well as statistics on the labor market (12:15 GMT) and construction spending (14:00 GMT). Tomorrow will be published important statistics on unemployment in the US. We expect a decline in the euro in the medium term and expect increased volatility in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate within a narrow range. Statistics, which was released yesterday, was contradictory. Thus, GDP growth in Q1 was 0.4%, which is 0.1% better than the previous estimate of analysts, business investments grew by 2.0%, which is 0.2% better than analysts' expectations. On the other hand the balance of payments deficit totaled 26.5 billion, compared with an expected 23.7 billion. Today investors' activity may increase on the background of the publication of data on the manufacturing PMI in the country (8:30 GMT), and speech by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the signal to open new positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen is growing against the backdrop of high demand for defensive assets by investors in connection with the Greek crisis. Also today, investors were supported by the statistics on manufacturing PMI in Japan, which rose to 50.1 in June against the forecast of 49.9. We recall that the value is above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions ahead of tomorrow's publication of important statistics on the US labor market, which will lead to increased activity of traders. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expected growth of the US dollar.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar rose amid a higher commodity prices, as well as due to technical factors. It is worth noting that the country's manufacturing PMI disappointed investors. Thus, the figure was 44.2 in June against 52.3 in the previous month. A similar index in China remained at 50.2, which is 0.3 less than analysts' expectations. Tomorrow a strong influence on the course of trading will have news on the trade balance in the country. Waiting for the monetary easing and low prices for iron ore and other export raw materials continue to put pressure on the Australian currency and we expect the fall of the Australian dollar in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand dollar price corrected upwards within a downtrend after the Australian currency, as well as due to a technical correction. Growth of price in the near future is possible only within the correction. The main reasons that negatively affects the New Zealand currency is the expectation of easing of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the strengthening of the US dollar and low prices for export products as milk powder. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.