01.07.2015 -Oil may continue to fall
The price of gold decreases against the strengthening of the US dollar, but also due to the positive statistics on consumer confidence in the US from Conference Board, which rose to 101.4, against the forecast of 97.1. At the same time investors ignore the absence of payment by Greece on the loan to the IMF. Traders are waiting for the results of the referendum on the austerity measures in Greece, which will lead to increased volatility. Demand in Asia remains negative. Strong influence on the course of trading will have the data on the US labor market, which will be released tomorrow and may enhance investors' confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September, which will have a negative impact on the course of trading. Our medium-term outlook is positive, but the decline may continue in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil is under the pressure from a number of factors. So, Greece has not paid about 1.6 billion euros of debt to the IMF, and in the case of a vote of the Greek population in a referendum on July 5 against the austerity measures in the country, the Greek crisis may adversely affect the euro-zone’s economy and lead to a reduction in demand for oil in the region. In addition, negotiations on Iran's nuclear program continued despite previous expectations of their end before 30 June. Analysts predict reaching of consensus and lifting of sanctions on Iran's oil exports. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on oil reserves in the US (14:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative with the targets around 50-52 dollars per barrel.