01.07.2015 - Shanghai index continues to decline

American stock indexes showed gains yesterday on the background of positive statistics on the publication of the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which rose to 101.4, against the forecast of 97.1. Chicago manufacturing PMI was 49.4 against 50.2 expected, but was better than the previous value of 46.2. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics of the US manufacturing PMI and construction spending (14:00 GMT). Investors will not accumulate positions before the output of the important statistics on the labor market of tomorrow. In case of improvement of indicators will increase the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September, will have a negative influence on investors’ sentiment. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

Major European stock markets continued to consolidate against the backdrop of uncertain future of Greece in the euro zone and the possible consequences of a default of the country for the European economy and stock markets in the region. The manufacturing PMI in the euro zone remained at 52.5, while in the UK fell to 51.4 vs. expected 52.6. It is worth noting that yesterday was published final data on GDP growth in the UK, which was 0.4% in the first quarter. In the coming days we probably will not see a pronounced dynamics on the market due to the uncertainty in Greece, where a referendum will take place on June 5 at the country's austerity measures, which are necessary for the country's debt restructuring. We expect increased volatility in the next week and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth today. The exception was the Shanghai market, which in recent weeks has shown a high level of volatility. Since mid-June, the Shanghai index has fallen by 22%. Investors fear a further reduction within the correction after the strong growth over the past year. The manufacturing PMI in China, calculated by HSBC was 49.4 in June against the forecast of 49.6. The comparable figure in Japan was 50.1, which is 0.2 better than the expectations of investors. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on the trade balance of Australia. The movement of the index in the coming days will depend on the statistics on the US labor market, which will be published tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook for the market in the region remains positive.

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