01.08.2016 - Oil has corrected against the backdrop of China's statistics
The price of gold has shown strong growth after weak data on GDP growth was published in the United States, which according to preliminary data for the second quarter increased by 1.2% that is 1.4% less than the forecast. This fact has led to a significant reduction in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year, as well as strengthened the dollar. It is worth noting that the weak data from America and increase the interest of investors to defensive assets such as gold. According to our forecasts, in the nearest future growth may continue up to 1400 dollars per troy ounce. Our medium-term outlook is also negative due to the risk of falling on stock markets.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil rebounded upwards against the US dollar's decline, which traditionally has a positive impact on share prices of black gold. It should be noted that the drilling activity in the US continued to grow the fifth week in a row. After long-term decline, investors can start to fix positions. Support for oil today became data on China’s manufacturing PMI from Caixin, which rose to 50.6 in July against the forecast of 48.8. We recall that China is the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States. Given the persistent excess supply on the market, and the resumption of drilling activity in the US, we expect a further decline in the medium term, but the probability of correction is increased in the near future.