01.08.2016 - Potential of stock market growth significantly reduced
American stock indexes showed growth against the publication of weak statistics on the growth of US GDP, which according to preliminary data expanded by 1.2% vs. expected 2.6%. This fact has led to a decrease in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year. It is worth noting that consumers' confidence index in the US in July rose to 90.0, which is 0.5 more than the previous figure. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect data on the manufacturing PMI and construction spending in the US (14:00 GMT). The focus will remain on the corporate reporting season. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and growth potential in the near future is limited.
European stocks fall despite the rise in optimism on the background reduced likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year due to the weak growth of the US economy. It is also worth pointing out the positive impact of stress tests in Europe. 51 banks showed a positive result against 12 banks, which may face a problem in the event of a crisis. Manufacturing PMI in the euro zone rose to 52.0, which is 0.1 more than the previous figure, and that in the UK fell by 0.9 to 48.2. Macroeconomic statistics in the UK will deteriorate due to the expected exit of the country from the EU and this factor will restrain the growth of the region's markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed trends. The negative for the Japanese market became weaker stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the yen, which has led to a decrease in quotations of export-oriented companies. Chinese investors were supported today by the news on the growth of the manufacturing PMI from Caixin, which rose to 50.6 vs. 48.6 previously. The same indicator in Australia unexpectedly rose to 54.6 in July versus 51.8 in June. Tomorrow in Australia will be published important data on the trade balance and the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the beginning of decline in the near future.