01.09.2015 - China is the main negative factor for the market
US stocks resumed their negative trend amid fears of investors about China's economy. In addition, a negative for the market was the news on the Chicago PMI that in August was 54.4, which is worse than the previous figure of 0.3 and the forecast of analysts. Support for the market was the increase in oil stocks. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on the manufacturing PMI and construction spending in the US (14:00 GMT). Negative for the market is still the uncertainty about the Chinese stock market and the industry. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the near future is likely the continued downward movement of the index.
Major stock indexes in Europe have shown different dynamics yesterday and today show a strong decline due to negative from Asia where markets continued to plummet, despite the efforts of the Chinese authorities to support the stock market. Negative for market data were also the news from Europe, where manufacturing PMI in the euro zone fell by 0.1 to 52.3, and in the UK by 0.4 to 51.5. It should be noted that the statistics on the reduction of unemployment in the euro area to 10.9% in July, which declined by 0.2%, was not able to change the mood of investors. Investors are waiting for the Fed's statement on the monetary policy, which will be announced on September 17. We forecast growth of indexes in the region in the medium term, but in the coming weeks will see strong volatility on the markets.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a drop of the worsening expectations regarding the growth of the Chinese economy, which could slow down to the levels below 7.0%. The manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.7, vs. expected 49.8, while in Japan decreased by 0.2, to 51.9. The sudden increase in the same period in Australia to 51.7 in August, could not change the negativity on the market. Tomorrow should pay attention to Australia's GDP. We expect the fall in stock markets in the region in the near future. Volatility will remain high.