01.10.2014 - Investor sentiment remains negative
Major American stock indexes showed a slight decline yesterday on the negative macro data. Thus, the consumer confidence index fell to 86.0, compared with an expected 92.2. At the same time, the manufacturing Chicago PMI fell to 60.5 which is 1.1 worse than analysts' forecasts. The growth of quotations of eBay associated with allocation of PayPal as a separate business failed to neutralize this negative. Investors expect the release of unemployment data on Friday, and today the course of trading may be affected by the news on the labor market (12:15 GMT), the manufacturing PMI and construction spending in the United States (14:00 GMT). We maintain medium-term negative outlook on the stock market the United States.
European stocks finished yesterday's session mixed. Thus, the British market fell due to weak data on the country's balance of payments deficit which rose to 23.1 billion, against the expected 16.9 billion. At the same time, the country's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.9%, which is 0.1% better than expected. It should be noted that the expected growth of the UK's GDP by 3.5% in 2014, which would be a maximum increase in the last 10 years. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at the same level of 11.5%, while the consumer price index in the region fell to 0.3% in September, against 0.4% in August. Today we should pay attention to the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the UK (08:30 GMT). We maintain medium-term negative outlook for the markets in the region despite the possible launch of additional measures to support the economy by the ECB.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to decline due to negative investor sentiment in the United States, as well as in connection with the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Chinese markets are closed for the holidays, and the Japanese market continues to fall after weak data on the Tankan index, where the service index fell to 13, which is 4 worse than the forecast and manufacturing increased to 13, against the expected 10. Australian market is falling behind the national currency and low prices for export products of the country. We maintain medium-term negative outlook for the markets in the region.