01.10.2014 - Oil fell sharply after the OPEC report
The price of gold continued to decline against the strengthening dollar despite weak macroeconomic data from the world's largest economy. Thus, the index of consumer confidence in the United States unexpectedly fell to 86.0, compared with an expected 92.6. In addition, the increase in the index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States slowed to 6.7%, which is the lowest growth since November 2012. Gold demand from investment funds remains weak, but the consumption of the metal will rise due to the wedding season in India and holidays in China in the 4th quarter. Protests in Hong Kong led to a fall in sales of jewelry in the country. We forecast the beginning of the growth of gold prices in the medium term.
The price of Light sweet crude oil fell sharply yesterday after the announcement of an increase in the OPEC oil supply to 30.96 million barrels a day in September, against 30.15 million barrels a day in August. Despite the recent decline, the volume of oil supplies from Libya remains at 900 thousand barrels per day compared with 200 thousand at the beginning of the year. Oil demand in Europe remains weak, in addition, investors negatively estimate the effect of the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Increase in volatility is expected on Friday after the release of data on the labor market in the United States. We expect a further decline in quotations in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.