01.12.2014 - China's industry shows weak results
The price of euro remained virtually unchanged for the last trading session on the background of low activity of traders in the United States in connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at 11.5%, while the consumer price index fell in November by 0.1% to 0.3%, which should lead to more active measures of the ECB to deal with deflationary risks. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and the US (15:00 GMT). The central event of this week will be a statement of Mario Draghi after the ECB's decision on interest rates and the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and look forward to continuing the current price dynamics throughout the day.
The British pound continued to decline and is now consolidating near the levels of local minimum near 1.5600. The reason for the further reduction of prices was the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the slowdown in house prices up to 0.3% in November, which is 0.1% less than the forecast and 0.2% worse than the previous figure. Today is worth paying attention to the production PMI, the number of permits for mortgage lending and the volume of credits to individuals (09:30 GMT). Today, there is a strong possibility of a downward correction, but the medium-term trend remains negative.
The price of the Japanese yen continued to decline after the publication of data on manufacturing PMI of the country, which fell to 52.0 in November against 52.1 in October. It is worth mentioning that the price of the national currency of Japan has been steadily declining on the background of loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which had previously announced increase in the volume of asset purchases to 80 trillion yen and, if necessary, will continue to stimulate the growth of inflation in the country. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the indicators of the monetary base and wages in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are likely to expect a continuation of the downward price movement.
The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline due to falling commodity prices. We recall that iron ore prices fall steadily due to problems in the construction sector in China, oil reduced after the statement of OPEC on saving oil production quotas unchanged, while gold prices fell after the referendum in Switzerland where voted against increasing the share of gold in reserves of the country and ban on selling of gold by the central bank. We recall that Australia is the second largest in the world, after China producer of gold. Weak data on China's manufacturing PMI, neutralized the positive from growth of the same indicator in Australia by 0.2, to 50.1 in November. We expect a further decline of quotations and recommend holding short positions.
The New Zealand dollar is consolidating near the level of 0.78 after it showed a decline amid falling Australian dollar and weak data on industry in China, which is a major consumer of New Zealand's exports. It is worth noting that the decline in New Zealand currency slowed, despite the fact that the latest indicators in the trade deficit of the country exceeded the expectations of experts. Medium-term trend of the price of the New Zealand dollar remains negative and we look forward to continuing the current price dynamics.