01.12.2015 - Traders expect strong movements on the market
American stock market yesterday declined slightly. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions ahead of the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics this week. The key event in the coming days will be the publication of a report on the US labor market in November. Improved performance will strengthen confidence in the Fed's interest rate hike in December. Yesterday, investors were disappointed by the data on manufacturing PMI Chicago, which unexpectedly fell to 48.7 against 56.2 in October. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the manufacturing PMI and construction spending in the US (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the coming weeks, we can see the shift in market sentiment and increased volatility.
Major stock indexes in Europe finished yesterday's trading session mixed. Negative for the German market has become the data on the reduction in retail sales in October by 0.4%, against expected growth of 0.3%. Today, investor sentiment will affect the news on manufacturing PMI of the euro zone (09:00 GMT) and the UK (09:30 GMT) and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). Activity in the market is constrained by the expectation of the ECB's decision monetary policy, which will be published on Thursday. Thus, the European regulator may increase the quantitative easing program by 15 billion euros to 75 billion euros of monthly asset purchases and continue it until the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017. At the same time interest rates on deposits can be reduced from the current level of 0.20% to -0.30% or even -0.45%, that will lead to the fall of the euro and the rise in European stock markets. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed strong growth today on improved sentiment in the world. In Japan was published statistics on the manufacturing PMI, which in November fell by 0.2 to 52.6. The same indicator in China also declined by 0.2 to 49.6, but analysts point to positive forecasts in relation to effective softening of the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China. Australian investors were supported by data on the manufacturing PMI, which despite the decline in investment in the mining sector showed an increase to 52.5 in November against 50.2 in October. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of Australian assets will affect the data on GDP growth in the third quarter. We keep medium-term positive outlook for the stock markets in the region, but volatility in the coming weeks will be increased due to the influence of external factors.