02.02.2015 - China's manufacturing sector shows a slowdown

US stock indexes on Friday showed a negative trend against the publication of data on growth of US GDP, which disappointed investors. Thus, the world's largest economy, according to preliminary forecasts increased in the 4th quarter by 2.6%, compared with an expected growth 3.0%. It is worth noting that in the 3rd quarter GDP grew by 5.0%. Consumer confidence in the US was 98.1, which is 0.1 worse than analysts' forecasts. Today the dynamics of trading will depend on the statistics on personal income and consumer spending (13:30 GMT), the manufacturing PMI and construction spending in the US (15:00 GMT). On the one hand in the medium term growth on stock markets will be supported by a program of quantitative easing, but on the other, macroeconomic factors point to the need of reduction of the stock markets. To determine the direction of the medium-term we need additional signals.

European stock indexes finished the last trading session last week, despite the decrease in number of positive data on GDP growth in Spain by 0.7%, which is 0.2% better than expected. The unemployment rate in the euro area in December fell by 0.1% to 11.5%. The growth of deflation to 0.6%, which is 0.1% worse than forecast disappointed investors. Today Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed no growth and remained at 51.00 in January. The comparable figure in the UK rose to 53.0, which is 0.1 better than expected. Investors expect the launch of the program of quantitative easing, which should support the growth on the markets, but macroeconomic indicators in Europe remains weak, and the Greek crisis continues to put pressure on the indexes in the region.

Most indexes of the Asia-Pacific region have completed trading day with decline. The reason for pessimism became the negative external background as well as statistics on the manufacturing PMI in China from the bank HSBC, which fell to 49.7, which is 0.1 worse than forecast and indicates the slowdown in the sector. That in Japan increased by 0.1, to 52.2, but was unable to change the negative attitude of investors. The exception was the Australian market which was supported by the statistics on manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly rose to 49.0 against 46.9 in the previous period. We forecast a decline of markets in the region due to the deteriorating macroeconomic indicators, but note the expectation of a positive effect of the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.

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