02.02.2015 - Today, investors are looking at the situation in the manufacturing sector
The price of euro did not show strong price movements on the last day of the week, despite the weaker data on GDP growth in the US in Q4. Thus, the world's largest economy showed an increase of 2.6% against the expected 3.0%. At the same time, it is worth noting the stronger data from Europe, where Spain's GDP rose in the 4th quarter by 0.7%, which is 0.2% better than expected and the unemployment rate in the euro area fell by 0.1% to 11.4% . Despite the series of events that will lead to the growth of quotations euro, traders do not want to accumulate long positions in connection with the soon launch of quantitative easing in the euro area, which will continue to put pressure on the euro. Today, it is worth paying attention to the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and the US (15:00 GMT), as well as personal spending and incomes of consumers in the United States (13:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and to change the current trend will be needed a substantial boost.
The price of the British pound showed no growth on Friday, despite the weak data on growth of US GDP, which was 2.6% in Q4, versus rise of 5.0% in Q3. In addition, the index of US consumer confidence in January fell by 0.1 to 98.1. Quotes on the British currency were pressured by data on reduction of lending to individuals, which fell by 0.9 billion to 2.2 billion. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on the manufacturing PMI in the country (09:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but note the decrease in potential for further price decline.
The price of the Japanese yen today showed growth on the back of positive statistics on manufacturing PMI in the country, which rose by 0.1 to 52.2. At the same time, the growth of defense assets increased in connection with the publication of statistics on domestic car sales, trucks and buses, which fell by 18.9% in January compared with the same period of the last year. Reduced manufacturing PMI in China, increased the demand for defemsive assets. Demand for the yen is still supported due to fears of default in Greece. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but do not exclude the short-term strengthening due to increased demand defensive assets.
The price of the Australian dollar has not shown strong growth volatility on background of statistics on Australia's manufacturing PMI, which rose to 49.0 in January, against 46.9 in December. Positive from Australia, was offset by weaker manufacturing PMI data from China, which declined by 0.2 to 49.7 in January. At the moment the price is consolidating around the level of 0.78 and investors are in no hurry with actions before the publication of the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the data on the trade balance of the country tonight. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a slight increase, but continues to consolidate below the level of 0.73. Investors were disappointed by weak data on the manufacturing sector in China. Analysts expect future statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will also lead to increased volatility in the currency of New Zealand. It is worth noting that tomorrow night will be published statistics on the labor market in New Zealand that can support investors, but at the same time, the speech of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Graeme Wheeler is likely to have a negative impact on the quotes of the national currency of New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.