02.02.2015 - Weak data from China and the strike in the United States, resulted in the fall of oil prices
The price of gold rose after the correction to the level of 1252 dollars per troy ounce. The reason for the increase of quotations have become weak data on growth of US GDP in the 4th quarter. Thus, the index rose by only 2.6%, which is 0.4% worse than analysts' forecasts. At the same time, growth in the 3rd quarter was 5.0%. The consumer confidence index also showed a decline of 0.1 to 98.1. Investors accumulate positions on defensive assets due to the risk of default of Greece, as well as deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, which has a negative effect on relations between Russia and the West. Today, the demand for gold was supported by weak data on China's manufacturing PMI, which fell by 0.1, to 49.7. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term, but note the possibility of falling the price in the short term.
The price of oil rose sharply on Friday on news of the need to keep a 15-day supply of oil at refineries, which led to increased demand for oil. Today, the downward trend in prices of oil have resumed in connection with a strike in the US refineries of United Steelworkers, the factories that produce about 10% of gasoline, diesel and other fuels in the United States. In addition, China's manufacturing PMI calculated by HSBC fell by 0.1 to 49.7. Let us remind that the index below 50.0 indicates contraction in the sector. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on oil and recommend holding short positions.