02.02.2016 - RBA has left interest rates at 2.0%
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows growth against the US dollar amid weak statistics from America. Thus, the manufacturing PMI in January was 48.2, which is 0.4 below analysts' forecasts. Personal consumer spending did not grow on a background of warm weather, which reduced the cost of utilities and a reduction in car sales. It should be noted that a representative of the ECB Benoit Kere said about the probable revision of the parameters of ECB on monetary policy meeting in March, which will have a strong negative impact on the euro. Today will be published important statistics on unemployment in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). The main event of this week will be publication of a report on the US labor market on Friday. We expect a soon resumption of the negative dynamics of the euro, but the current growth can continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a growth on the background of unexpectedly strong manufacturing PMI data in the country. Thus, the index rose to 52.9 in January, against an expected decline to 51.8. It is worth noting that companies have cut staff at the fastest pace in three years. The volume of export orders also showed a decline. Experts point out the negative effect of the high exchange rate of the British pound against the euro, which is negatively displayed on the trade balance of the country. Today will be published news on the country's construction PMI (09:30 GMT). We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics today and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the weakening US dollar quotations in connection with the publication of weak statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow, the focus will be on the speech of the Bank of Japan's chairman Haruhiko Kuroda, in which he will explain the future plans of the regulator concerning monetary policy. It is worth noting that the recent lowering of interest rates by the Bank of Japan to -0.10% will have a negative impact on the yen, and we expect the resumption of the fall of prices in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a decrease today after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates at 2.0%, which is a historical minimum. It is worth noting that pressure of the weak inflation and a significant slowdown in economic growth in China and the world as a whole may lead to a further reduction in interest rates to support economic growth. An important factor is the growth of the economy with the exception of the mining sector. At the moment, the transformation of the economy will reduce dependence from commoditiesâ prices. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the news on the trade balance of Australia. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the recent increase, was unable to continue the positive trend and the decline resumed following the Australian currency. Earlier, the RBNZ decided to keep interest rates at the same level, but hinted at their possible reduction after the next meeting in case of continued low inflation rate. Tonight (21:45 GMT) will be release a report on the labor market in New Zealand, which will lead to an increase in volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.