02.03.2016 - Data on the growth of the Australian economy has supported the national currency

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows a further decrease due to the rise of the US dollar after publication of statistics a stronger in America. Thus, the manufacturing PMI rose in February to 49.5, against 48.2 in January, while construction spending rose by 1.5% and reached its highest level since 2007. The data on reduction of unemployment in the euro area by 0.1% to 10.3% was not able to significantly influence the mood of investors. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics on the labor market in the US (13:15 GMT) and the publication of Beige Book (19:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative, and a strong influence on the dynamics of the currency will have the publication of labor market data in the US on Friday.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound was under the pressure from weak statistics on the manufacturing PMI, which fell to its lowest level in nearly three years, which was caused by the decrease in exports and weakening domestic demand. Investors are also not in a hurry to accumulate long positions in relation to the risks with respect to a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, which will take place on 23 June. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on construction PMI (09:30 GMT). We expect a further drop in the British pound, but are waiting for the resumption of positive dynamics in the coming months.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen decreases on the background of growth of investor interest in risky assets. On the other hand, the situation in China is still unstable, and macro-economic indicators in Japan remain weak. Further price movement will depend on the dynamics of the stock and commodity markets. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen and note a significant potential of its reduction.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed strong growth today in connection with the publication of data on GDP growth in the 4th quarter, which totaled 0.6%, which is 0.1% better than the forecast, but 0.5% less than the increase recorded in 3Q. Compared with the same period last year, GDP grew by 3.0%, despite the decline in investment in the mining sector. The main driver of growth was domestic demand. We forecast a drop in the price of the Australian dollar in the medium term.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth on the background of a price increase of the Australian dollar after the publication of positive statistics on the growth of GDP in Australia, whose economy is closely linked with New Zealand. The main factor that continues to put pressure on the quotes of the national currency remains the expected decline in interest rates of the RBNZ due to the low level of inflation in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

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