02.04.2015 - Markets are waiting for a report on the US labor market

US stock indexes showed a slight decline on weak macroeconomic data. Thus, the number of new jobs in the US private sector grew by 189 thousand in March, compared with an expected increase of 227 thousand. Construction spending fell in February by 0.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts. The manufacturing PMI fell down to 51.5 that is 1.4 worse than the previous forecast. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the volume of factory orders in February (14:00 GMT) and data on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Investors will not rush to build up positions ahead of tomorrow's publication of statistics on the labor market, the improvement which could lead to a drop in stock market indexes due to the increase in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the US stock market.

January 23, 2015 USSPX Graph

Major stock indexes continued to rise gradually against the background of positive statistics for the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which rose to 52.2, vs. 51.9 before. The same indicator in the UK added 0.4 to 54.4. Analysts continue to monitor the negotiations on Greek debt restructuring. We do not expect a strong price movement in the near future due to the long weekend and expectation of publication of the report on the labor market in the US tomorrow, which can greatly influence the further movement of the index. Given the launch of quantitative easing in the euro area and the positive effect of reducing the euro, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the markets of the region.

Asia-Pacific markets have shown strong growth. Purchases intensified due to the end of the transition period associated with the end of the financial year. Positive for the market was the news on the inflation forecast in Japan, which this year could reach 1.4%. It is worth recalling that the inflation target is 2.0%, but the drop in prices for oil and other energy will constrain the growth rate. In Australia today, is a day off. Volatility tomorrow will remain low. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

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