02.04.2015 - Oil production in the US has declined

The price of gold has strengthened against the weakening US dollar, after the release of weak statistics on the US manufacturing PMI, which fell to 51.5 that is 0.1 worse than prognosis. At the same time, the number of new jobs in the US private sector grew by 189 thousand, against expectations of growth by 227 thousand. Investors expect increased volatility due to the publication of a report on the labor market in the US in March. Improvement in the labor market will increase the probability of raising interest rates of the Fed in June, which is negatively displayed on the price of gold and the dollar will strengthen. On the other hand the Fed raising interest rates will negatively affect the stocks that will increase the demand for defensive assets. We keep the medium-term outlook for gold.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil price rose sharply after the publication of statistics on oil and petroleum products in the United States. Thus, despite the increase in oil reserves by 4.8 million barrels, against the forecast of 4.2 million barrels, traders began to buy oil futures due to reduced oil production by 36 thousand barrels per day. Gasoline inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 229.1 million barrels, which is the lowest level since the beginning of the year. Investors are also watching the talks on Iran's nuclear program. Agreement should be reached by 30 June. In the case of easing sanctions against Iran, oil prices will continue to fall. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.

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