02.05.2016 - The probability of correction on the stock markets has increased
American stock indexes finished the last trading session of the week on the negative territory, which was associated with weak statistics on consumer spending, which grew by only 0.1%, vs. expected 0.2% in March. At the same time, consumer revenues increased by 0.4%. This fact points to the tendency of low expenditures. In addition, the consumer confidence index in the US fell to 89.0, that is 1.3 worse prognosis. Reducing the profits of American corporations, the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, as well as the approaching to the index highs are the reasons for a substantial correction on the US stock markets. We forecast a decline on the US markets in the coming months.
European stocks today show modest growth. In the UK is a day off. The reason for the growth is a correction after strong decline at the end of last week. In addition, optimism is supported by data on the manufacturing PMI in the euro area, which rose to 51.7 that is 0.2 more than the forecast. The same indicator will be released tomorrow in the UK. Strong influence on the dynamics of the European indexes in the near future will have a foreign market. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but there is a possibility of a downward correction in the coming weeks.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decline on the background of negative external influence from the US markets and the strengthening of the yen. Chinese stock markets were closed today for a holiday. Among the statistics we highlight the growth of Japan's manufacturing PMI for up to 48.2 in April, which is 0.2 more than analysts' forecasts and the previous value. Australian investors are waiting for tomorrow's decision by the RBA on interest rate, the probability of reduction of which has increased significantly due to the fall in the consumer price index to -0.2% in Q1. In addition in the country will be presented the draft of annual budget. We expect growth on the markets of the region in the medium term, but the fall is likely to continue in May.