02.06.2016 - The employment data in the US will lead to strong movements
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose against the weakening US dollar, due to the publication of weak statistics on the manufacturing PMI in the US in August. Thus, the index unexpectedly fell to 49.4, against the forecast of 52.0. It should be noted that the figure below 50.0 points to the reduction in the sector. The comparable figure in the euro area fell by 0.1 to 51.7. Today, the focus will be on the publication of a report on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). In case of positive statistics, we expect a sharp decline in the euro against the background of the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year. On Monday, in the US is a bank holiday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed confident growth against the US dollar on strong statistics on the manufacturing PMI in the UK, which unexpectedly rose to 53.3 vs. predicted 49.1. On the other hand, the same indicator in the USA showed a decrease, which weakened the dollar. A slight effect on the dynamics of trading will have statistics in the UK on construction PMI (08:30 GMT), but the main event of this week will be the release of the labor market data in the US that have a major impact on the dynamics of the British currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen corrected after the recent decline caused by the appreciation of the US dollar and the increase in probability of increased divergence between the interest rate of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. A slight positive impact on the trading had the news on consumer confidence in Japan, which rose to 42.0 in August, against the forecast of 41.6. On Monday, the central event will be the speech of the Bank of Japan’s chief Haruhiko Kuroda. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, but if the stock markets fall, we will see growing demand for defensive assets like the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected upwards within the downtrend. Support for prices was the decline of the US dollar, but the pressure was a negative dynamics of oil prices, which puts pressure on the commodity markets. a strong increase in volatility is expected today in connection with the important news from the United States, but the main event next week will be a statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. We do not expect a decrease in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia next Tuesday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar today shows a slight increase due to the negative dynamics of the US dollar. Investors expect a higher level of volatility today. The dynamics of prices in the near future will depend on the news from the US and Australia. Considering the possible reduction of the RBNZ interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar, we keep a medium-term negative outlook.