02.07.2015 - Fundamental factors continue to put pressure on the oil price

The price of gold continued to decline due to the expectation of a positive outcome of the Greek crisis after the referendum in Greece, which will be held on July 5 and at which will vote for or against the austerity measures needed to restructure the country's debt. At the same timethe course of trading was influenced by the strengthening of the dollar against the background of positive statistics on the labor market in the US, where the number of new jobs in the private sector in the country has increased by 237 thousand, compared with an expected 219 thousand. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector of the US (12:30 GMT). We forecast growth of gold prices in the medium term, but in the near future we can see a decrease in prices.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil has fallen to a target level of 57 dollars per barrel, and at the moment is corrected upwards due to technical factors. The reason for the decrease was the strengthening of the US dollar, the publication of data on oil reserves in the US, which unexpectedly rose by 2.4 million barrels compared with an expected drop of 1.9 million barrels per day. At the same time, the US Department of State announced on prolongation of talks on Iran's nuclear program until July 7. In case of reaching a consensus, the quotations of oil will rapidly decline. According to analysts, OPEC has set a new record on oil production, which grew to 32.1 million barrels per day in June, against the quotas at the level of 30.0 million barrels per day. Given these facts, we expect further fall in the price of oil, but do not exclude the continuation of correction today.

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