02.07.2015 - Labor market data in the US today will be in the focus
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to decline due to the deterioration of expectations regarding the referendum in Greece, which will be held on July 5. We recall that the Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras urged to vote against the austerity measures in the country. Positive for the US Dollar yesterday was the data on the growth of the construction costs by 0.8%, vs. expected 0.4%. In addition, the number of jobs in the US private sector has grown to 237 million, compared with an expected 219 thousand. Today, the focus will be on thelabor market statistics in the US (12:30 GMT) and the volume of factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect increased volatility today.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline due to a number of factors. Thus, the positive statistics on the labor market and the construction sector has strengthened US dollar. At the same time, the Bank of England said that the interest rates in the country will be at the current levels for some time. UK Manufacturing PMI was 51.4 in June, against the forecast of 52.6. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on construction PMI (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar. The demand for the Japanese currency was supported by negative expectations about the consequences of a Greek default and rise of interest in the yen may after the referendum on the austerity measures in Greece, which will be held on July 5. Today is expected the increase in volatility after the release of statistics on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and tomorrow we expect decrease in investor activity in connection with the holiday in the US.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as due to the negative statistics on Australia's trade balance deficit which in May was 2.75 billion, against expectations of 2.21 billion Australian dollars. The main factors that put pressure on the national currency remain the expectation of rising interest rates in the US and easing of monetary policy in Australia. At the same time the low export prices for iron ore adversely affect the attitude of investors to the Australian dollar. Tomorrow we should pay attention to retail sales in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the Australian dollar. The negative trend of the New Zealand dollar remains strong due to two main factors - the expectation of easing monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as well as lower prices for dairy products, which is the main export item of the country. We recommend to hold short positions and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.