02.08.2016 - The probability of correction on the stock markets significantly increased
American stock markets continued to consolidate near historic highs. The reason for the slight decline has become data on manufacturing PMI, which totaled 52.6, which is 0.5 less than the forecast. At the same time, construction spending fell by 0.6% in June against the expected increase of 0.5%. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics on personal income and consumer spending (12:30 GMT). The central event of the week will be the publication of the report on the labor market in the US, which may lead to changes in investors' expectations regarding the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
European stock indices are falling on the background of fixing positions, as well as the negative impact of low oil prices. It is worth noting that the macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom continued to deteriorate, and this trend is likely to continue in the near future. Index of business activity in the UK construction sector fell to 45.9 in July against the forecast of 44.2. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on retail sales and service activity in the euro area. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expected negative effect of the UK’s exit from the EU and the growth of global risks.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed different dynamics. Investors are waiting for the approval of the fiscal stimulus package in Japan by 13.5 trillion yen. Stabilization of the yen after strong growth in the past few days could not stop the decline on the Japanese market. Consumer confidence in the country continued to decline and reached the level of 41.3, which is 0.5 worse than the previous value. Reduction in RBA’s key interest rates by 0.25% to 1.50% could not lead to an increase in the local market. It is worth noting negative data on the Australia's trade deficit balance of 3.2 billion against 2.0 billion expected. Our medium-term outlook for the stock markets in the region is negative.