02.09.2015 - The Australian dollar fell to 0.70 after the release of GDP data
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro resumed growth after a slight fall against the US dollar and at the moment investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of tomorrow's press conference of Mario Draghi, and the publication of an important report on the US labor market in August. It is worth noting that yesterday was published important statistics on the labor market in the euro area, which showed an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to 10.9%, which is 0.2% better than analysts' expectations and the previous figure. Today, the price dynamics will be affected by the news on producer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), the volume of factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT) and publication of the Beige Book (18:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro, and we expect strong growth of volatility prior to the publication of the Fed decision on interest rates on September 17.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to fall after yesterday's publication of statistics on reduction of the UK manufacturing PMI to 51.5 in August, that is 0.4 worse than analysts' expectations. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have news on the construction PMI (08:30 GMT). We recall that after the statements of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, investors, experts expect rising interest rates the Bank of England not earlier than 2-3 quarters of 2016, which is negatively displayed on the cost of the British currency. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the British pound and expect falling of prices in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after a sharp decline, has strengthened against the background of the next increase in demand for protective assets in connection with the risks associated with China, but it should be noted the stabilization of the stock markets in the region. Yesterday pressure on the yen had the data on the manufacturing PMI, which declined by 0.2 to 51.7 in August. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions prior to the publication of the report on unemployment in the US on Friday. We expect the fall of the yen in the medium term in spite of its recent strength.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has continued to fall and reached the target level of 0.70 after the publication of statistics on the growth of GDP, which in the second quarter was 0.2%, vs. expected 0.4% and the previous growth by 0.9%. It is worth noting that during the year, the economy grew by 2.0% vs. anticipated 2.2%. The greatest pressure on the index had a decrease in exports, but the support was the increase in consumer spending. Tomorrow, will be the publication of a report on the trade balance and retail sales in the country. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but do not exclude the beginning of the correction in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a slight increase within the correction and continues to move in a downtrend due to weak data on the balance of payments and the expectation of monetary policy easing in the country to support the growth of consumption in the country. The New Zealand dollar is still under the pressure from lower prices for dairy products, which is the main export commodity. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar.