02.10.2015 - The report on the labor market will increase the volatility today
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro after the recent decline came to an important level of 1.12 on the background of weak data in the US. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims in the country rose to 277 thousand, which is 10 thousand more than the previous record. The manufacturing PMI in the US fell in September to its lowest level since 2013 - 50.2, which is 0.6 below expectations. The comparable figure in the euro zone remained unchanged at 52.0. Today, the dynamics will depend on the report on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT), which will greatly affect the sentiment of investors on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. In addition, we should pay attention to the data on the volume of factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect the price drop of the euro in the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to fall slowly due to the worsening statistics on the UK manufacturing PMI, which in September fell to 51.5, which is 0.2 better than expected, but 0.1 lower than the previous indicator. It should be noted that industrial enterprises have reduced the number of workers, which indicates the need to wait with the increase in interest rates the Bank of England. Today slightly in the course of trading may influence the news on the construction PMI (08:30 GMT). Growth is projected volatility after the release of unemployment data in the United States. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the British pound.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen weakened slightly today after the release of a report on unemployment in Japan, which grew by 0.1% in August to 3.4%. On the other hand, household spending for the same period accelerated growth to 2.9%, vs. expected 0.4%. Investors are waiting for today's release of statistics on employment in the US, which may increase the volatility and lead to a strong price movement after a long price consolidation. We maintain a negative outlook on the yen due to the loose monetary policy in Japan and forecast of its tightening in the United States.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell after recent gains caused by technical factors and the growth of interest in commodities. Increased prices in the near future is possible only in the short term within the correction. Statistics on retail sales in the country, which increased by 0.4% in August as expected, could not greatly affect the course of trading. Traders expect increased volatility due to the release of important data from US later today. The weak trade performance of trading and the negative impact of slowing economic growth in China remains a major cause for the saving our medium-term forecast.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar was not able to continue the growth and stabilized after a steady increase over the previous days. The recent rise was caused by the weakening of concerns about the situation in China, but for its continuation are needed new incentives. We expect strong price movement today and the resumption of the negative dynamics. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.