02.12.2014 - Мarkets are waiting for speech of the Fed chairman
US stock indexes yesterday showed a decline on a background of weaker than expected sales of "Black Friday", which fell by 11%. It is also worth noting the negative impact on the manufacturing PMI data in China, which fell by estimates of HSBC by 0.4 in November to 50.0, and the same indicator in the United States, which declined by 0.3, to 58.7, which was by 0,8 better than analysts' forecasts. At the moment, investors are in no hurry to build up positions before the publication of labor market data on Friday. Today, it is worth paying attention to the speech of Janet Yellen (13:30 GMT) and construction spending (15:00 GMT). Given the slowdown in growth amid the lack of new drivers for growth, weakness of bulls and end corporate reporting season, we keep the medium-term negative medium-term outlook.
European stock markets yesterday were also under the pressure of weak data on manufacturing activity in China. In addition, the manufacturing PMI in the euro area fell to 50.1 in November, compared with an expected 50.4. At the same time similar indicator in the UK rose by 0.2, to 53.5, which once again show the strength of the British economy. Today the market was supported by the reduction in the number of unemployed in Spain for 14.7 thousand. Construction PMI in the UK fell to 59.4, which is 0.7 below expectations. The course of trading may also be affected by the data on producer price index of the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). Increase in volatility is expected on Thursday after the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. We keep medium-term negative outlook for European markets.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a positive trend against the background of rumors about soon easing of monetary policy of the People's Bank of China, to support economic growth in the country. In addition, the Japanese market compensated the losses of the beginning of the trading session caused by downgrade of Japanese rating by Moody's to "A1" from "Aa3". The growth of quotations in the region showed gold stocks and oil companies. We keep medium-term negative outlook on the markets in the region except for Japanese. Possible measures to stimulate the Chinese economy may lead to a revision of our forecasts.