02.12.2015 - Investors are waiting for the decision of the ECB
The American stock market showed a positive trend yesterday amid a general improvement in investor sentiment on the market amid a likely stimulating from the ECB. Support for the market was the news about the growth of construction costs in the US by 1.0% in October. At the same time in the US manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 48.6 in November against the forecast of 50.6. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on the US labor market and the speech of Janet Yellen (13:30 GMT). Activity on the market will be constrained by the expectation of tomorrow's ECB decision and the publication of a report on the US labor market on Friday. We expect growth in the medium term, but it’s potential is limited.
European stocks did not show uniform dynamics yesterday. Investors are waiting for the ECB's decision on the measures to stimulate the economy and inflation in the euro area. The unemployment rate in the euro area fell to 10.7% in October, compared to 10.8% in September. Today has published statistics on the consumer price index in the euro area, which rose by 0.1% in November against the forecast of 0.2%. Basic consumer price index slowed in November to 0.9%, which is 0.2% less than the forecast. Tomorrow the ECB will decide on the parameters of monetary policy in the euro area. In case of lower interest rates on deposits from the current -0.20% to -0.30% or -0.45%, we expect to see growth on the markets of the region. In addition, the program of quantitative easing may be continued until the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017, and its volume can be increased by 10-20 billion against the current monthly volume of purchases of 60 billion. We expect price growth on the European markets in the medium term.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the trading session around the previous close. Strong growth was recorded in the Shanghai market. Support for global investor sentiment became the positive, associated with the expected easing of monetary policy in the euro area, which will stimulate demand. It is worth noting that Australia's GDP in the third quarter rose by 0.9%, which is 0.2% better than expected, and for the year the increase was 2.5%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the ECB's decision. We expect growth on the markets of the region in the medium term, but do not rule out a correction in the near future.