02.05.2014 - Activity on the market has fallen due to holidays in Europe

Major U.S. indexes have not changed much yesterday. Low activity on the market was explained by a public holiday in most countries of Europe. Data on the labor and housing markets disappointed investors. Thus, the number unemployment claims rose to 344 thousand against the forecast of 317 thousand, while construction spending increased by 0.2% vs. predicted 0.5%. At the same time, expenses and income of consumers grew better than expected. Today the course of trading may be influenced by the data on the labor market in the U.S. (12:30 GMT) and factory orders (14:00 GMT). We maintain a long-term negative outlook on the U.S. market.

The price of euro was unable to continue the growth, and returned to the levels of the previous day. Holiday in Europe reduced the activity of traders and the price is dependent on data from the U.S. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and the U.S. (12:30 GMT). We expect further decline of the euro and keep a long-term negative outlook.

On Monday, the course of trading will be affected by data on inflation in the Eurozone. In case of further reduction the consumer price index will increase the possibility of further measures of monetary policy easing by the ECB. Investors will also be monitoring the situation in Ukraine at the weekend, where the remains tense in the e

The British pound continued gradual increase amid positive data on production in the country and the growth of house price index by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.6%. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on business activity in the construction sector. Considering strong performance in the production, GDP growth and unemployment, we maintain a long-term positive outlook for the British pound.

The price of USD/JPY resumed its upward movement. The reason for the growth was the strengthening of the dollar and the reduction of growth rate of the monetary base in April to 48.5% for a year against the forecast of 55.3%. Increase in volatility is expected today after the release of data on the U.S. labor market. We expect the price growth and maintain medium-and long-term positive outlook for the pair.

The Australian dollar has failed to continue the growth and resumed its decline. The price growth was negatively affected by new home sales in Australia by 0.2% against the previous level of 4.6%. The quotes are under the pressure of expectations of new monetary easing measures in connection with low inflation in the country. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate below the strong level of 0.8630. For further growth are needed additional incentives. Negative factor that restrains the growth of the pair is the slowdown in the industry in China, which is the main trade partner of the country. Despite the expectation of correction we maintain a mid-term positive outlook.

The price of Light sweet crude oil is consolidating around 99-100 dollars per barrel after the previous decline. Let us recall that U.S. crude inventories rose again and reached record levels, leading to lower prices on the market. Despite this high oil prices are supported by tensions in Ukraine. We look forward to continuing the downward movement and maintain a negative outlook on oil.

The price of gold continued to decline amid weak demand from investment funds and consumers in Asia. The rise in prices may resume in case of the beginning correction on the stock markets or escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. We expect volatility in the near future and maintain a long-term positive outlook.

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