03.02.2015 - European investors fear the Greek scenario in Spain

US stock indexes showed strong growth at the end of yesterday's trading session. The reason for optimism was the data on consumer spending, which despite a drop of 0.3% showed the fastest growth rates for some categories. It is worth noting that the decline in energy prices has led to an increase in savings and increase in spending on expensive goods. In addition, the growth of the market was supported by higher oil prices. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on factory stocks in the US. We forecast index growth in the long term, but do not exclude the fall on the markets in the nearest future.

European stocks showed moderate growth yesterday despite the rise of speculation about the growth in popularity in Spain of a leftist party Podemos, which can repeat the success of the Greek Syriza, which also opposes austerity measures. Positive for the market has become the data on the manufacturing PMI in the euro area which remained at 51.0, while in the UK rose to 53.0, which is 0.1 better than expected. Today was published positive data on the construction PMI in the UK, which rose to 59.1 in January, compared with an expected 57.6, but the index of producer prices in the euro area showed a decrease to 0.4%, compared with an expected fall to -0.1% . We forecast growth of European indexes in the medium term.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region show different dynamics. Japanese stocks fall amid strengthening of the yen and rising oil. At the same time the Australian market responded positively to the increase in the price of oil and gold. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia today announced the reduction of interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This step should be a support for the country's economic growth and improve the situation on the labor market. The Chinese market is under the pressure of weak manufacturing data which was published yesterday, but investor optimism in the country increased due to positive corporate reporting. Our medium-term outlook for the markets of the region is more optimistic than before, but we assume the possibility of the fall of the index in the medium term.

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