03.02.2015 - The price of oil continues to rise

The price of gold continues to restore the position after the downward correction. The reason for the increased demand for gold remains weak data on economic growth in the euro area, China and Japan. In addition, GDP growth in the US in the 4th quarter has not met expectations of analysts and was only 2.6%. Among the risk factors that increase the interest in defensive assets are fears of default in Greece, and geopolitical tensions related to the confrontation with ISIS and fighting in the east of Ukraine. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but to continue to grow above 1300 dollars an ounce would be needed a substantial boost.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to rise after in the US was published statistics on reduction of the number of drilling rigs in the country to 1223, which is the lowest level since October 2013. Decline in oil prices has led to the closure of a number of drilling rigs and reduced investment in new fields. In addition, demand for oil has increased in China in connection with the requirement to increase oil reserves to 15-day supply at the refineries in China. Despite the reduction in the number of drilling rigs on the market is still an excess of oil, which will continue to put pressure on oil prices. We recommend to close short positions on oil, but maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

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