03.02.2016 - Unemployment in New Zealand declined sharply to 5.3%

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed growth against the background of the weakening US dollar, which was due to lower oil prices, as well as the publication of positive statistics on the unemployment rate in the euro area, which in December fell to 10.4%, which is 0.1% better than the previous forecast. It is worth noting that compared to December 2014, the number of unemployed in the euro area decreased by 1,501 million. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect news on service PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and retail sales (10:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the resumption of the negative dynamics of the euro.

3 Months and 4 Hours of EUR-USD Performance

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound strengthened yesterday amid the news about agreement between the UK and the EU to one of the points of the plan of saving the country within the European Union. Further progress in the negotiations will reduce the probability of the country’s exit from the European Union. A referendum on this issue should be held until the end of 2017. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the service PMI (09:30 GMT). Tomorrow, the focus of investors will be on the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of England and the speech of its head. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the background of renewed growth in demand for defensive assets due to lower oil prices. Today was published statistics on consumer confidence in Japan, which in January fell by 0.2 to 42.5. Further movement of quotes of the Japanese currency will depend heavily on the demand for defensive assets. Stabilization of the situation on the stock and commodity markets will lead to a resumption of the negative dynamics of the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current decline may continue in the near future.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell today against the backdrop of lower oil prices. In addition, the country's trade deficit in December was 3.54 billion vs. anticipated 2.45 billion. Statistics on the growth in the number of building permits by 9.2% vs. expected 4.8% failed to improve sentiment. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the index of business sentiment in Australia, but the main impact will have the dynamics of prices in the commodity markets. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar today showed strong growth after the publication of statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate fell in the 4th quarter to its lowest level since March 2009 - 5.3%. Analysts had expected an increase to 6.1%. This strong improvement will maintain interest in the New Zealand currency, but in the nearest future growth will be constrained by the fall in commodity prices and an expected decline in interest rates during the next meeting of the New Zealand regulator. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the New Zealand currency, and recommend holding short positions.

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