03.03.2014 - ​The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged

The price of euro yesterday rose against the background of positive statistics from the Eurozone, but the strengthening of the dollar in the second half of the trading session has led to a return to previous levels. The unemployment rate in the euro area fell to the lowest level since April 2012 - 11.2%, which is 0.1% better than the previous value. Deflation was 0.3%, against 0.5% forecasted. Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.3, which is 0.5 worse than forecast, but analysts point that this reduction is due to a strike at one of the country's ports. Today the dynamics of trading will depend on the statistics on retail sales in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the index of producer prices in the euro area (10:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the euro.

The price of the British pound continued to decline against the dollar strengthening despite the positive data from the UK. Thus, the manufacturing PMI rose to 54.1 in February, which is 1.0 better than analysts' forecasts. The number of permits for mortgage loans rose to 61 thousand, in line with analysts' forecasts. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the construction PMI (09:30 GMT) and the speech of the Bank of England (10:00 GMT). We expect growth of quotations in the near future, but note the negative impact of the fall of the euro on the British currency.

The price of the Japanese yen strengthened after the decline yesterday. Support for the currency was the statement of economic advisor to the Japanese Prime Minister with respect to, the fact that at the present time, the yen is near the upper limit of the comfort zone of the exchange rate. It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan monetary policy remains soft, and the US is expected to raise interest rates in the second half of this year. We expect a further decline of the yen in the medium term.

The price of the Australian dollar has shown a steady growth after the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to leave interest rates without change at 2.25%. We recall that at the previous meeting of the RBA, it was decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% and analysts predicted a similar move at this meeting. Additional support for the Australian currency was the statistics on balance of payments deficit, which totaled 9.6 billion, which is 1.3 billion better than expected. The number of permits for new construction rose by 7.9%, against an expected decline of 1.8%. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook due to the deterioration in the labor market, lower investment in the mining complex and the risks associated with the construction sector in China.

The price of the New Zealand dollar after yesterday's fall, rebounded upwards against the strong growth of the Australian currency. Tomorrow the price dynamics will also depend on data from Australia, where will be published the report on the growth of the country's GDP, and which may disappoint investors and lead to a downward movement of the Australian and New Zealand currencies. We expect growth of quotations of the New Zealand dollar in the near future, but are waiting for additional signals for the forecast for the medium term.

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