03.03.2016 - The Australian dollar continued to rise
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro has stabilized and may continue to consolidate before tomorrow's publication of statistics on the labor market in the US for the February. Yesterday was published Beige Book, according to which economic growth continues in most US regions. Today it will be published important data on the service PMI (09:00 GMT) and retail sales in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). We should also pay attention to the news on the non-manufacturing PMI and the volume of factory orders in the US (15:00 GMT). Investors are waiting for tomorrow's US unemployment report, which can lead to a strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday fell against the background of weak statistics on construction PMI, which fell to 54.2 in February, against the forecast of 55.5, but then resumed its growth against the backdrop of the slight weakening of US dollar. Today, the impact on the mood of traders will provide statistics on the UK’s service PMI (09:30 GMT). Strong volatility is possible tomorrow in connection with the release of the US labor market report. The growth of the British pound in the near future is limited and a major impact in the coming months on investor’s sentiment concerning the UK currency will have speculations about the future results of the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen shows weak volatility due to the anticipation of the publication of the report on the labor market in the US, which may affect investors' expectations regarding the Fed raising interest rates this year. According to our estimates, the situation on the stock and currency market will stabilize in the coming months and the yen may resume its fall against the US dollar. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen and wait for the signal to open long positions on USD/JPY.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to rise today after yesterday was published statistics on the country's GDP, which rose in Q4 by 0.6%, vs. expected 0.5% and for the year the country's economic growth was 3.0%. Today, the impulse for the increase of quotations was the news on the trade balance of the country, which reduced the deficit to 2.94 billion in January, against 3.52 billion in December. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on retail sales in the country. The current upward movement of prices is likely to continue in the near future, but we maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the Australian currency.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has continued to grow following the Australian currency with the economy of which New Zealand is closely linked. Prices for commodities and the movement of the Australian dollar continues to strongly influence the attitude of investors to the New Zealand currency. The potential for growth in the near future and fell, we expect the fall of prices in the next week and mid-term due to the forecast of decrease in the RBNZ interest rates with the purpose to combat low inflation in the country.