03.03.2016 - US crude oil inventories rose strongly

The price of gold is consolidating above the level of 1230 dollars per troy ounce on the background of improved sentiment on the global markets as well as rising oil prices. Incentives in China, where was lowered the rate of reserve requirements for banks by 0.5% to 17.0%, as well as the expectation of a strong report on the US labor market in February are reducing the fears about the global economy. Tomorrow we expect a strong increase in volatility after the publication of statistics on the US labor market, which will be the incentive for an earlier Fed raising interest rates, which traditionally have a negative effect on the price of gold. We forecast a drop in prices in the medium term.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil futures showed a strong rise in volatility yesterday after was published the data on the US oil reserves, which for last week rose and 10.4 million barrels against the forecast of 2.5 million barrels and reached the highest level for this time of the year 518 million barrels. After the publication of the report on inventories appeared the statement of the Minister of oil of Venezuelan in which he noted the intention of the meeting of 15 or more countries to discuss the possibility of freezing the volume of oil production. According to our estimates, the impact of this news will be limited due to the expected Iran's refusal from such agreements. We recall that the Islamic republic continues to increase exports after the lifting of sanctions. Our medium-term outlook for oil remains negative.

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