03.04.2015 - Agreement on Iran's nuclear program has led to the fall of oil prices
The price of gold continues to consolidate near the important level of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. Positive statistics on reduction of the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to 268 million, compared with an expected 286 thousand. Today, volatility will increase due to the expected publication of statistics on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Improvement will lead to an increase in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June. On the other hand a decrease on the stock markets will increase the demand for defensive assets like gold. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold, but it's recommended to wait for the signal to open positions.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil declines against the background of a preliminary agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The final decision must be made before June 30. Easing of sanctions against Iran in the case of success of the negotiations will lead to an increase in oil exports from the country, which will increase the imbalance of demand and supply of oil in the world and will put pressure on oil prices. Today, the increased volatility will be caused by the release of data on the US labor market data, which will strengthen the dollar, but on the other hand will point to the growth of consumption of oil in the future. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook in order to $ 40 per barrel.