03.07.2015 - Today, in the US is the day off

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed growth against the background of conflicting statistics on the US labor market. Thus, the unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in June, compared to 5.5% in May, but the number of non-farm payrolls rose by 223 thousand, compared with an expected 121 thousand. At the same time, the index for the previous month was revised to 254 thousand from 280 thousand. The volume of factory orders in May fell by 1.0% against the forecast of a decline of 0.5%. Today, in the US is holiday, and the course of trading will be affected by the data on the Eurozone’s service PMI (08:00 GMT), and retail sales in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are awaiting for the results of the referendum on the austerity measures in Greece, which will be held on Sunday.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized and ceased the fall amid the weakening of the US dollar after mixed statistics on the labor market in America. Support for the British currency was the data on the construction PMI in June, which totaled 58.1 against expectations of 56.6. Today, the volatility will be low due to the holiday in the US. The mood of traders will be affected by the statistics on the service PMI (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen rose yesterday amid falling US dollar, which was caused by the statistics on the US labor market. Currently quotes are trying to correct downwards. Today, market activity will be low due to the celebration of Independence Day in the United States and look forward to the results of a referendum in Greece, which may lead to increased demand for defensive assets if the population of the country will vote against the austerity measures which are necessary for debt restructuring. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative and we expect the weakening of the national currency of Japan in the near future.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar resumed its decline in connection with the publication of weak statistics on retail sales in Australia, which in May rose by 0.3%, which is 0.2% worse than analysts' expectations. At the same time statistics on China's service PMI, calculated by HSBC also negatively affected the course of trading. Thus, the index in June fell to 51.8 compared with an expected 53.8. Low prices for export commodities and the expectations of monetary policy easing of the Reserve Bank of Australia, negative impact our expectations for the Australian currency. We expect a drop in prices in the medium term.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The New Zealand dollar was corrected upwards amid the weakening of the US dollar after the release of statistics on the US labor market. Currently quotes stabilized and will probably continue to decline in a downtrend next week. Currently there are no reasons to talk about changing the negative trend due to the expectation of further easing of monetary policy and lower prices for dairy products. We expect a drop in prices in the near future and in the medium term.

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