03.08.2015 - Data from China once again disappointed investors
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a sharp rise on Friday against the publication of weak statistics on the growth of wages in the US by 0.2% in the second quarter, which was the lowest since 1982. Analysts expected an increase of 0.6%. This fact has led to speculation about the growth of the probability of a later increase in interest rates of the Fed. In addition, the index of US consumer confidence fell to 93.1 in July against the expected increase to 94.2. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the US (14:00 GMT). In addition, we should pay attention to the data on personal spending and income of consumers (12:30 GMT), as well as construction spending in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro is negative and we recommend holding short positions.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a strong increase in volatility in the last trading session of the week, but after the strong growth returned to the previous levels. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news on the manufacturing PMI in the country and the dynamics of the US dollar. Increased activity of investors predicted the end of the trading week, when it will be published important statistics on industry and trade balance of the country.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after the unexpected strengthening on Friday associated with the fall of the US dollar resumed its downward trend, and at the moment continues to consolidate. It is worth noting that today will be released a report on the manufacturing PMI in Japan, which in July fell to 51.2, that is 0.2 worse than expected and the previous figure. The amplitude of price fluctuations of the Japanese yen has declined. We still have negative view on the prospects for growth of the Japanese currency, and expect its decline in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a strong increase in volatility at the end of last week and started to decline at the beginning of today's trading day on the background of the publication of weak statistics from China, where manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0, worse forecast 50.2. Statistics from China traditionally has a strong importance to the Australian economy, whose main exports are bought by Chinese consumers. In spite of this, the same indicator in Australia unexpectedly rose to 50.4 in July against 44.2 in the June. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on retail sales and the trade balance in the country. Our medium-term view is negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate near the levels of the last trading session last week. Negative for investors was the worsening statistics on industrial production in China. Tuesday night in the country will be published important statistics on the unemployment rate in New Zealand, which traditionally will have a strong influence on the course of trading. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.