03.09.2015 - Traders are waiting for statistics on the US labor market
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell despite the weak data on the US labor market. Thus, the number of jobs in the private sector of America from APD in August increased by 190 thousand, compared with an expected 204 thousand. At the same time, the volume of factory orders in the country increased by only 0.4% in July, which is 2 times worse than expected. Today, the central event of the day will be a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT), during which we will hear the regulator’s assess relative impact of the crisis in China's economy on the Eurozone. The course of trading will also be affected by the news on service PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT), the trade balance and the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT), as well as non-manufacturing PMI in the US (14:00 GMT). Investors will hold back waiting for the vital statistics on the US labor market in August. Our medium-term outlook for the EUR remains negative and we expect increased volatility in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to gradually decline against the strengthening US dollar. Also yesterday, the pressure on the British currency had the news on the construction PMI, which totaled 57.3 in August, which is 0.3 better than expected. Today, the mood of traders will be influenced by the statistics on the service PMI (08:30 GMT). At the moment, we see no reason to change the negative trend and we expect a drop in prices in the near future. Growth of volatility is projected tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell against the US dollar, due to the strengthening of the US currency before tomorrow's release of the report on the US labor market in August. Investors also assess the likelihood of higher interest rates after the Fed's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on September 16-17. In case of monetary tightening, the dollar will rise, but then may fall due to the forecast of keeping the interest rates at the same level after the increase. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative and we expect increased volatility tomorrow.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to decline after the publication of weak data on retail sales, which fell in July by 0.1%, against an expected increase of 0.4%. At the same time statistics on the trade balance was better than expected. Thus, the trade deficit in July totaled 2.46 billion vs. anticipated 3.10 billion. The highest growth was recorded in exports of gold. Given the loose monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, low commodity prices and weak demand from China, we expect the fall of the Australian dollar in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate due to the expectations of tomorrow's report on the US labor market. After the completion of the current consolidation, we are likely to see a strong price movement. The medium-term trend remains negative, and growth in the near future is possible only in the correction. We still maintain a medium-term negative outlook due to the negative impact of the fall of the Australian dollar, lower export prices and the expectation of lower interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.