03.10.2014 - Investor sentiment remains negative
American stock indexes yesterday have not changed. Traders were disappointed by weak data on factory orders, which fell in August by 10.1%, which is 0.7% worse than analysts' expectations. Investors are waiting for the release of statistics on the labor market in the United States (12:30 GMT). Also today is worth paying attention to the US trade balance (12:30 GMT) and non-manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT). Positive data on unemployment can lead to an earlier increase in interest rates by the Fed. Given the completion of the program of quantitative easing, and the problems in the Eurozone, we expect decline of American indexes in the medium term.
European stocks fell yesterday on speculation regarding that action of the ECB to deal the low inflation would not be sufficient for the resumption of economic growth and rising inflation. We recall that yesterday Mario Draghi said that the ECB will buy backed securities in the next 2 years. Volume of the program may be about 1 trillion euros. Today, the European market continued to decline due to lower service PMI in Eurozone to 52.4, which is 0.4 worse than the forecast. Also today, we should pay attention to data on retail sales in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for European markets.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today corrected upwards after falling in the previous trading session. Chinese markets opened after the weekend and recorded a modest growth. Non-manufacturing PMI in China in September fell by 0.4 to 54.0. Japanese investors continue to monitor the rate of the yen, which has been steadily decreasing. Australian traders continued to monitor the dynamics of prices for iron ore, gold and other export commodities. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and expect a further drop on the indexes in the region.