03.10.2016 - On the currency market continues consolidation

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro has shown growth at the beginning of the week after on Friday was published weak data on personal spending of consumers in the United States that showed no growth compared to expectations of an increase by 0.2%. Today, the dynamics will affect data on the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the US (13:45 GMT). At the same time we should pay attention to the statistics on the US construction spending (14:00 GMT). It is worth noting that after long-term consolidation of euro price, there is a high probability of strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the Fed's forecast of increase in interest rates in December.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell today after during the weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the country’s exit process from the EU will begin no later than March of the next year and this period will be spent in consultations with other EU countries before this period, in order to minimize the negative impact of this step to the country's economy. Today is also worth paying attention to the manufacturing PMI (08:30 GMT). Growth of price in the near future is limited, and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed little change in connection with the release of statistics on the country's manufacturing PMI, which reached the level of 50.4 against the forecast of 50.3. Tomorrow will be published data on consumer confidence index in Japan. The main event this week will be a report on the labor market in the US in September, which greatly affect investors' expectations regarding the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Growth of volatility until the US presidential elections in early November, will be supported by speculation about a possible victory of Donald Trump, whose actions are unpredictable, and the growth of its popularity will lead to increased demand for safety assets like the yen.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar declined after the strengthening at the end of last week. On one side the manufacturing PMI in China, which is the main trading partner of Australia, in September remained at 50.4, which is 0.1 less than the forecast. On the other hand the same indicator in Australia increased to 49.8 against previous estimate 46.9. Tomorrow will be published the RBA’s statement on monetary policy, but we do not expect a decline in interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decrease in the near future.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate and after its completion, we expect a strong movement in prices. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the speech of the RBNZ chief Graeme Wheeler in which he can hint at the timing of lowering interest rates. Strong influence on the dynamics of trading will also have news from Australia. Given the weakness on the market of dairy products and the expectation of a stronger US dollar, we keep a negative medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar.

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