03.11.2015 - ​Today, market volatility will be reduced

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro on the first trading day of November showed a weak volatility and continued to consolidate around 1.10 the level of amid expectations of the statements of the Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday, and the publication of important statistics on the US labor market on Friday, which greatly affects investors' expectations regarding the increase of the Fed’s interest rate cut in December. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on unemployment in Spain (08:00 GMT), the volume of factory orders in the US in September (15:00 GMT) and ECB President Mario Draghi (19:00 GMT). We expect falling prices in the medium term and look forward to a new sell signal.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell yesterday on the background of the lack of strength of bulls after unduly strong increase in the previous days. It should be noted that the statistics on the UK manufacturing PMI, which rose unexpectedly to 55.5 in October versus 51.8 in September, failed to lead to a further strengthening of the pound. At the same time, a negative for the quotes have become the data on the growth of construction costs in the US by 0.6% in September, which is 0.1% more than the forecast. As a result, construction costs rose to the highest level since 2008. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen is consolidated in anticipation of important statistics on the US labor market on Friday, which will lead to a strong price movement. Today in Japan is a day off and in the United States among the important statistics we should pay attention only to the volume of factory orders (15:00 GMT). In this regard, volatility is low. Tomorrow, the dynamics of trading can be influenced by the data on consumer confidence. We expect the price decline of the Japanese yen in the medium term against the background of a soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and its expected tightening in the United States.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar strengthened to a level of 0.72 after the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has kept interest rates at 2.0%. In addition, it was noted an improved outlook for the growth in the Australian economy, despite the expected deterioration of economic conditions in Asia. It is worth noting that inflation in the third quarter was 0.3%, which was the minimum figure for 4 years and encourages the regulator to lower interest rates. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar, and note a high probability of falling in the near future.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to consolidate in anticipation of the publication of important statistics on the labor market in the country in the third quarter (21:45 GMT), which will lead to increased volatility. In addition, investors will be watching the news on retail sales and the trade balance in Australia, which will be released tomorrow. We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative view.

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