03.12.2013- Tired markets, or the lull before storm?
U.S. markets ended the day slightly lower. Broad index S&P500, closed above the psychological level of 1800. Toward the end of the session the bearish mood appeared due to rising concerns about the overheated market. Analysts say that from a fundamental point of view growth is quite reasoned, but the fact that the indexes are at record levels, make some investors to worry. Among macrostatistics published yesterday, we should note the index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which came in at 57.3 with expectations of 55.2. On European markets certainty also was not observed. The focus was on data of the index of business activity in the euro area. Overall figure exceeded analysts' expectations of 51.5 and was at 51.6. A significant contribution to this growth was made by Germany (52.7 vs. 51.7 in October) and Italy (51.4 vs. 50.7 in October). But in Spain, industrial growth, apparently stalled. The business activity index fell to 48.6 against predicted growth of 51.3. Among the important news today, we should pay attention to the change in the number of unemployed in Spain (08:00 GMT) and the producer price index in the euro area (10:00 GMT). Strong euro drawdown yesterday, most likely, occurred on expectations relating to future ECB meeting and the interest rate announcement on Thursday (12:45 GMT). Now the price of the pair continues to decline within the local rising channel. Support stands at 1.35. On the same level is the lower boundary of the rising channel. Growth is limited by a local maximum of 1.3620. The British pound, after reaching the upper limit of the upward channel, began a correction. Bulls decided to take a breather, despite the growth in manufacturing activity in the UK for the eighth consecutive month. In November, the index was at 58.4 with the forecast level of 56.5. We look forward to continuing the upward movement within the channel. The nearest support level is at 1.6315. A decision of the Bank of England on interest rate will appear on Thursday. We do not expect the revision of rate, because all macroeconomic indicators are close to the central bank's forecasts, and unemployment is not yet at the level of 7%, after reaching which they will consider raising rates. After correction on the previous day, the Australian dollar continued to decline. Bulls are not pleased with an increasing balance of payments deficit in the third quarter that appeared at 12.7 billion dollars, while expected deficit was 11.1 billion. The price continues to move in a downward trend. The goal is 0.89. In case of correction the growth is limited by local maximum levels of 0.9170 and 0.9200. USD/JPY continues to grow. On this background resumed the growth Nikkei 225. Monetary policy in Japan is quite clear and yet gives positive results. Corporate profits are rising, inflation rises, but not always due to growth in consumption. We do not expect any change of trend in the near future. Growth may be ceased in case of cutting down the program of quantitative easing, it can be announced on 18-19 December. Nearest support is at 102.60. Oil prices rose slightly during yesterday's session. Positive mood on oil appeared due to data on the manufacturing sector in the United States and China (50.8 vs. 50.4 in October). Players are waiting for the OPEC meeting to be held in Geneva on December 4th. Review of quotas is not expected, but any statement from this meeting can greatly affect the future price movement. Growth is limited by levels of 94.40 and 95.20. 92.00 dollars per barrel will serve as a strong support level. The price of gold yesterday came out, downwards, from the triangle. Fundamental factor was the strengthening of the dollar. As we expected, the price have reached the level of 1220. The next targets will be the levels 1200 and 1180, where the purchases can resume. Demand for the metal in China before the New Year (celebrated in January) can support the quotes.