03.02.2014 - Manufacturing PMI will be in the spotlight today
The last trading session of the week ended with lowering of major U.S. and European indexes. One of reasons for the decline of the market was a report of Amazon.com, which disappointed investors. Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose to 81.2 against the forecast 81.1. Personal consumer spending increased by 0.4%, revenues have not changed, which was worse than the previous figures. Chicago PMI rose to 59.6 at the forecast of 59.8.
On Friday in Europe was released the data on unemployment, which, despite the forecast of growth remained at 12.0%. At the same time, inflation in the euro zone declined to 0.7% with growth forecast up to 0.9%. Thus, we see that the threat of deflation in the euro area is growing. On this background, the quotes of EUR/USD are consolidating below a strong level of 1.35.
Today the course of trading will be affected by data on the China's PMI, which fell in January to 53.4, against 54.6 a month earlier. We should also pay attention to similar indicators in the Euro zone (09:00 GMT), the UK (09:30 GMT) and the U.S. (15:00 GMT).
This week the focus will be on the statements of the ECB and the Bank of England on the interest rates. We expect the Bank of England to leave its monetary policy without changing and we will not see the strengthening of the pound above the level of 1.66 in the coming days.
The quotes of USD/JPY are consolidating above $ 102.00. Today at 23:50 GMT, will be published data on the monetary base in Japan, after the release of which we expect the growth of volatility.
The price of Australian dollar also can not choose the direction. On Thursday, is expected the release of a large block of statistics on Australia. Today was published a report according to which manufacturing PMI in Australia has fallen to 46.7, against 47.6 in December.
Gold continues to move within the local rising channel. Physical demand in China decreased, after the start of the New Year’s celebration, which will last until Thursday. Gold prices may be supported by the decline on the stock markets of the U.S. and Europe.
The dynamics of oil prices currently shows the weakness of the bulls. Thus, the quotes of Light Sweet crude oil are near the mark of $ 97 per barrel. In the case of fixing below this mark and the growth of oil and petroleum products in the U.S., we expect a further price reduction. We maintain our negative outlook on the oil prices due to record levels of oil production in the U.S. and increased supply from the Middle East.