04.02.2015 - Rising oil prices has led to a decline of the dollar

The price of euro yesterday showed growth amid weakening US dollar due to the increased demand for currencies of commodity exporters, as well as reducing fears of investors about the debt crisis in Greece. According to the Greek Prime Minister, a new agreement with the country's creditors can be achieved in early June. It is worth noting the negative impact on the US dollar, the statistics on factory orders in the US, which fell in December by 3.4% on the dynamics of the US dollar. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the service PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and in the US (15:00 GMT), as well as retail sales in the euro area (10:00 GMT) and data on changes in the number of jobs in United States from ADP (13:15 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Euro Technical Analysis

The price of the British pound showed strong growth amid weakening of the US dollar and strong statistics on the construction sector in the country where the business activity index rose to 59.1 in January and compensated the strong decline in December. Analysts had expected a decline to 56.9. It should be noted that the construction sector represents about 6% of the UK's GDP and is a key for the labor market. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the service PMI in January (09:30 GMT). Today we expect a strong increase in volatility in connection with the statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative, but we can see continued growth in the near future.

The price of the Japanese yen declined, despite the fall of the US dollar. Among the reasons for the fall can be identified the rise in oil prices, and reduced fears of a default of Greece in connection with the expectation of achieving a new debt agreement with creditors in the country until early June. As a result, the demand for defensive assets on the markets declined. Increasing interest in the currencies of commodity exporters, of the yen also increased offer on the market. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen and note reduction potential for its strengthening.

The price of the Australian dollar sharply corrected upwards after a strong reduction on the day before. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.25%. Growth driver today was the increase in commodities, that were following the oil. It is worth noting strong growth in prices of copper. In the near future volatility on commodity markets will remain high, which will lead to a strong Australian currency price movements. Despite the current upward momentum, our medium-term outlook for the Australian currency remains negative.

The price of the New Zealand dollar has shown steady growth against the background of increased demand for currencies of the commodity exporting countries, as well as in connection with the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, according to which, the policy of stable interest rates makes the most sense at the moment. This statement has reduced the likelihood of declining interest rates in the near future and increased quotations of the New Zealand dollar. The weakening of the US dollar has also supported the quotations of the pair. We expect further growth of the New Zealand dollar prices in the near future, but keep medium-term negative outlook.

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