04.02.2015 - The growth of oil supported the stock markets
US stock indexes have shown a steady growth amid rising oil quotations, which supported the stock prices of energy companies. In addition, it is worth noting the improvement in investor sentiment due to the expectation of reaching an agreement between Greece and creditors, thus reducing the risk of default of the country. At the same time, the growth was limited by weak data on factory orders, the volume of which fell by 3.4%, against an expected decline of 1.8%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the service PMI (15:00 GMT) and the change in the number of jobs in the United States from ADP (13:15 GMT). We expect growth of US indexes in the long run, but in the nearest future, we may see the fall of indexes.
European stock indexes have shown growth on statements by the Minister of Finance of Greece, who offered to exchange the old debts with new ones, but not to write them off. At the same time, positive for the UK market was the news on the strong growth of the construction PMI in January. Thus, the figure rose to 59.1 against 56.9 expected. Today, the markets have been supported by the growth of news on service PMI in the Eurozone to 52.7, compared with an expected 52.3. The comparable figure in the UK rose to 57.2, against the forecast of 56.6. Retail sales in the euro area rose by 0.3%, against an expected decline of 0.1%, but investors do not rush to build up positions. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for European markets, but in the nearest future may see the fall.
Stock indexes of the Asia-Pacific region today showed strong growth due to improved sentiment on the US stock markets, which was caused by the reduction of concerns about debt restructuring in Greece. At the same time, the Australian market is showing steady growth amid rising prices for oil, copper and other commodities. The devaluation of the yen supported the quotations of Japanese exporters. Markets are closely watching the price of oil, which has grown since the beginning of the week. According to our estimates, there is a high probability of correction on the markets in the nearest future, but in the medium term growth can continue.